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Prediction for CME (2023-07-04T04:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-04T04:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25808/-1
CME Note: Complex partial halo CME comprised of multiple embedded fronts seen mostly south in SOHO/STEREO A coronagraphs but brightest in STEREO A COR2. The CME appears to contain a wide bulk and a very wide faint shock present in the northeast. Likely associated with an eruption near the vicinity of AR3359 (S22E24) seen best as a spray in SDO 193/171 starting shortly before 03:00Z as well as large-scale brightening in SDO 304 seen near 04:00Z. A broad area of large-scale post-eruptive arcades are seen back towards the northeast after the eruption, particularly in SDO 193. Data gaps due to a STEREO A campaign limits analysis of this event. No clear CME arrivals on July 6-8.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-06T22:33Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-04 10:30
 - Time at C2: 2023-07-04 04:36
 - Radial speed: 635.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S22E14
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 596.50 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-06 22:33 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.95 hours)
Lead Time: 56.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-07-04T13:43Z
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